{"id":28973,"date":"2024-03-10T08:22:21","date_gmt":"2024-03-10T09:22:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/express24.ir\/d\/product\/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86-%d9%be%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%b4-%da%a9%d9%87-%d8%a2%db%8c%d8%a7-%d9%be%db%8c%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%88%db%8c-%d9%81%d8%b5%d9%84%db%8c-%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%86\/"},"modified":"2024-03-10T08:22:22","modified_gmt":"2024-03-10T09:22:22","slug":"%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86-%d9%be%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%b4-%da%a9%d9%87-%d8%a2%db%8c%d8%a7-%d9%be%db%8c%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%88%db%8c-%d9%81%d8%b5%d9%84%db%8c-%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%86","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/express24.ir\/d\/product\/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d8%a7%db%8c%d9%86-%d9%be%d8%b1%d8%b3%d8%b4-%da%a9%d9%87-%d8%a2%db%8c%d8%a7-%d9%be%db%8c%d8%b4%d8%b1%d9%88%db%8c-%d9%81%d8%b5%d9%84%db%8c-%d8%b7%d9%88%d9%81%d8%a7%d9%86\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634 \u06a9\u0647 \u0622\u06cc\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0631\u0648\u06cc \u0641\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0637\u0648\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062f\u0647\u0647 1980 \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639\u0627 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f \u06cc\u0627 \u062e\u06cc\u0631"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc <\/td>\nQuestioning whether seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones since the 1980s truly exists<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc <\/td>\n\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u0631\u0633\u0634 \u06a9\u0647 \u0622\u06cc\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0631\u0648\u06cc \u0641\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0637\u0648\u0641\u0627\u0646 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0648\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u062f\u0647\u0647 1980 \u0648\u0627\u0642\u0639\u0627 \u0648\u062c\u0648\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f \u06cc\u0627 \u062e\u06cc\u0631<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0646\u0648\u06cc\u0633\u0646\u062f\u06af\u0627\u0646 <\/td>\nJimin Liu, Jeremy Cheuk-Hin Leung, Wenshou Tian, Hong Huang, Daosheng Xu, Weijing Li, Weihong Qian, Banglin Zhang<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0632\u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 <\/td>\n\u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u0641\u0631\u0645\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647: <\/td>\nPDF<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0627\u062a<\/td>\n22<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u062f\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a <\/td>\nAtmospheric and Oceanic Physics,\u0641\u06cc\u0632\u06cc\u06a9 \u062c\u0648\u06cc \u0648 \u0627\u0642\u06cc\u0627\u0646\u0648\u0633\u06cc ,<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u062a\u0648\u0636\u06cc\u062d\u0627\u062a <\/td>\nSubmitted 1 March, 2024; originally announced March 2024. , Comments: This preprint is a commentary article regarding a recent publication on Nature (Shan, K., Lin, Y., Chu, PS. et al. Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate. Nature 623, 83-89 (2023) https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41586-023-06544-0)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
\u062a\u0648\u0636\u06cc\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc <\/td>\n\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644 1 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 2024 \u061b\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u0645\u0627\u0631\u0633 2024 \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0645 \u0634\u062f. \u060c \u0646\u0638\u0631\u0627\u062a: \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u067e\u06cc\u0634 \u0646\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0627\u0646\u062a\u0634\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631 \u062f\u0631 \u0645\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0637\u0628\u06cc\u0639\u062a \u0627\u0633\u062a (\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u060c K. \u060c \u0644\u06cc\u0646 \u060c \u06cc. \u060c \u0686\u0648 \u060c PS. \u0648 \u0647\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0628\u0631\u062f \u0641\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0633\u06cc\u06a9\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0631\u0645\u0633\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u06cc\u062f \u062f\u0631 \u0622\u0628 \u0648 \u0647\u0648\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0631\u0645623 \u060c 83-89 (2023) https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/S41586-023-06544-0)<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

\u0686\u06a9\u06cc\u062f\u0647<\/h2>\n

Shan et al. (2023) recently reported significant seasonal advances of intense tropical cyclones (TCs) in both the Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) since the 1980s and emphasized the data insensitivity of this conclusion, based on the advanced Dvorak Technique-Hurricane Satellite (ADT-HURSAT) and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) datasets. However, upon rigorously repeating the analysis procedure in Shan et al. (2023), we are unable to replicate their conclusion. Our analyses reveal that insignificant trends in median of intense TC occurrence dates (hereafter referred to as $\\tilde{date}_{intenseTC}$) are observed in the SH based on the ADT-HURSAT, and in both hemispheres based on the IBTrACS. In addition, we discover inconsistencies in $\\tilde{date}_{intenseTC}$ trends between the two datasets, which primarily arise from the differences in identification of intense TC cases. The above discrepancies raise doubts about the reproducibility and validity of Shan et al.’s conclusions regarding the seasonal advance of intense TCs. Based on these findings, as well as the limitations of both datasets, we argue that the reported seasonal advance of intense TCs since the 1980s is inconclusive and further investigations with alternative datasets and approaches are needed.<\/p>\n

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\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u0648 \u0647\u0645\u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0646.(2023) \u0627\u062e\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u064b \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0631\u0641\u062a \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0641\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0633\u06cc\u06a9\u0644\u0648\u0646 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u06af\u0631\u0645\u0633\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u06cc\u062f (TCS) \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0647\u0631 \u062f\u0648 \u0646\u06cc\u0645\u06a9\u0631\u0647 \u0634\u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc (NH) \u0648 \u0646\u06cc\u0645\u06a9\u0631\u0647 \u062c\u0646\u0648\u0628\u06cc (SH) \u0627\u0632 \u062f\u0647\u0647 1980 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0647 \u0648 \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u0639\u062f\u0645 \u062d\u0633\u0627\u0633\u06cc\u062a \u062f\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0646\u062a\u06cc\u062c\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u060c \u0628\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u0627\u0633 \u062a\u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u06a9 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  • \r\n\t\t\u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u0647 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0648 \u0641\u0631\u0645\u0648\u0644 \u0647\u0627 \u0646\u06cc\u0632 \u062f\u0631 \u0641\u0627\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u06cc\u0644\u06cc \u0648\u0631\u062f \u062f\u0631\u062c \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u0646\u062f.\r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t<\/td>\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/table>\r\n\r\n\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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