
{"id":27826,"date":"2024-03-04T07:07:16","date_gmt":"2024-03-04T08:07:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/express24.ir\/d\/product\/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b2%db%8c-%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%b3%da%a9-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85%db%8c%da%a9-%db%8c%da%a9-%da%86%d8%a7%d8%b1%da%86%d9%88%d8%a8-%d8%a7\/"},"modified":"2024-03-04T07:07:17","modified_gmt":"2024-03-04T08:07:17","slug":"%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b2%db%8c-%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%b3%da%a9-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85%db%8c%da%a9-%db%8c%da%a9-%da%86%d8%a7%d8%b1%da%86%d9%88%d8%a8-%d8%a7","status":"publish","type":"product","link":"https:\/\/express24.ir\/d\/product\/%d9%85%d9%82%d8%a7%d9%84%d9%87-%d9%85%d8%af%d9%84-%d8%b3%d8%a7%d8%b2%db%8c-%d8%b1%db%8c%d8%b3%da%a9-%d8%b3%db%8c%d8%b3%d8%aa%d9%85%db%8c%da%a9-%db%8c%da%a9-%da%86%d8%a7%d8%b1%da%86%d9%88%d8%a8-%d8%a7\/","title":{"rendered":"\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0633\u06a9 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9: \u06cc\u06a9 \u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0639\u0644\u06cc\u062a \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646"},"content":{"rendered":"<table class=\"table table-striped table-hover\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc <\/td>\n<td>Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc <\/td>\n<td>\u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0633\u06a9 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9: \u06cc\u06a9 \u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0646\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0639\u0644\u06cc\u062a \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0646\u0648\u06cc\u0633\u0646\u062f\u06af\u0627\u0646 <\/td>\n<td>Jalal Etesami, Ali Habibnia, Negar Kiyavash<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0632\u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 <\/td>\n<td>\u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u0641\u0631\u0645\u062a \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647: <\/td>\n<td>PDF<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0627\u062a<\/td>\n<td>50<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u062f\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u0628\u0646\u062f\u06cc \u0645\u0648\u0636\u0648\u0639\u0627\u062a  <\/td>\n<td>Econometrics,Artificial Intelligence,Information Theory,Applications,\u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0633\u0646\u062c , \u0647\u0648\u0634 \u0645\u0635\u0646\u0648\u0639\u06cc , \u062a\u0626\u0648\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a , \u0628\u0631\u0646\u0627\u0645\u0647 \u0647\u0627 ,<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u062a\u0648\u0636\u06cc\u062d\u0627\u062a    <\/td>\n<td>Submitted 27 December, 2023; originally announced December 2023.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\u062a\u0648\u0636\u06cc\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc    <\/td>\n<td>\u0627\u0631\u0633\u0627\u0644 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u062f\u0631 27 \u062f\u0633\u0627\u0645\u0628\u0631 2023 \u061b\u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0628\u062a\u062f\u0627 \u062f\u0633\u0627\u0645\u0628\u0631 2023 \u0627\u0639\u0644\u0627\u0645 \u0634\u062f.<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u0686\u06a9\u06cc\u062f\u0647<\/h2>\n<p style=\"direction:ltr;\">We propose a nonparametric and time-varying directed information graph (TV-DIG) framework to estimate the evolving causal structure in time series networks, thereby addressing the limitations of traditional econometric models in capturing high-dimensional, nonlinear, and time-varying interconnections among series. This framework employs an information-theoretic measure rooted in a generalized version of Granger-causality, which is applicable to both linear and nonlinear dynamics. Our framework offers advancements in measuring systemic risk and establishes meaningful connections with established econometric models, including vector autoregression and switching models. We evaluate the efficacy of our proposed model through simulation experiments and empirical analysis, reporting promising results in recovering simulated time-varying networks with nonlinear and multivariate structures. We apply this framework to identify and monitor the evolution of interconnectedness and systemic risk among major assets and industrial sectors within the financial network. We focus on cryptocurrencies&#8217; potential systemic risks to financial stability, including spillover effects on other sectors during crises like the COVID-19 pandemic and the Federal Reserve&#8217;s 2020 emergency response. Our findings reveals significant, previously underrecognized pre-2020 influences of cryptocurrencies on certain financial sectors, highlighting their potential systemic risks and offering a systematic approach in tracking evolving cross-sector interactions within financial networks.<\/p>\n<h2>\u0686\u06a9\u06cc\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc (\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u0627\u0634\u06cc\u0646\u06cc)<\/h2>\n<p>\u0645\u0627 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0646\u0645\u0648\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a\u06cc \u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u067e\u0627\u0631\u0627\u0645\u062a\u0631\u06cc \u0648 \u0645\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u06af\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0646\u06cc (TV-DIG) \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0622\u0648\u0631\u062f \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631 \u0639\u0644\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u0644 \u062f\u0631 \u0634\u0628\u06a9\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0631\u06cc \u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646\u06cc \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0646\u0647\u0627\u062f \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u060c \u0648 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u0645\u062d\u062f\u0648\u062f\u06cc\u062a \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0633\u0646\u062c\u06cc \u0633\u0646\u062a\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0636\u0628\u0637 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u060c \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u062e\u0637\u06cc \u0648 \u0645\u062a\u0646\u0627\u0642\u0636 \u062f\u0631 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0645\u06cc \u067e\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0632\u06cc\u0645.\u0633\u0644\u0633\u0644\u0647.\u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0627\u0632 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0627\u0637\u0644\u0627\u0639\u0627\u062a\u06cc-\u0646\u0638\u0631\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0634\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0646\u0633\u062e\u0647 \u06a9\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0632 Granger-Guave \u060c \u06a9\u0647 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u067e\u0648\u06cc\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u062e\u0637\u06cc \u0648 \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u062e\u0637\u06cc \u06a9\u0627\u0631\u0628\u0631\u062f \u062f\u0627\u0631\u062f \u060c \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.\u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0645\u0627 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0631\u0641\u062a \u0647\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0627\u0646\u062f\u0627\u0632\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc \u0631\u06cc\u0633\u06a9 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f \u0648 \u0628\u0627 \u0645\u062f\u0644\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0642\u062a\u0635\u0627\u062f \u0633\u0646\u062c\u06cc \u0627\u06cc\u062c\u0627\u062f \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u060c \u0627\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u062a\u0648 \u0648 \u0631\u06af \u0628\u0631\u062f\u0627\u0631 \u0648 \u0645\u062f\u0644\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0648\u0626\u06cc\u0686\u06cc\u0646\u06af \u060c \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637 \u0645\u0639\u0646\u06cc \u062f\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0628\u0631\u0642\u0631\u0627\u0631 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u062f.\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u062b\u0631\u0628\u062e\u0634\u06cc \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u067e\u06cc\u0634\u0646\u0647\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u062e\u0648\u062f \u0631\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u0637\u0631\u06cc\u0642 \u0622\u0632\u0645\u0627\u06cc\u0634 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u0628\u06cc\u0647 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0648 \u062a\u062c\u0632\u06cc\u0647 \u0648 \u062a\u062d\u0644\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u062c\u0631\u0628\u06cc \u0627\u0631\u0632\u06cc\u0627\u0628\u06cc \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645 \u060c \u0648 \u0646\u062a\u0627\u06cc\u062c \u0627\u0645\u06cc\u062f\u0648\u0627\u0631\u06a9\u0646\u0646\u062f\u0647 \u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0627 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0632\u06cc\u0627\u0628\u06cc \u0634\u0628\u06a9\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u0631 \u0634\u0628\u06cc\u0647 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0627 \u0633\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0627\u0631\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u063a\u06cc\u0631\u062e\u0637\u06cc \u0648 \u0686\u0646\u062f \u0645\u062a\u063a\u06cc\u0631\u0647 \u06af\u0632\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u06cc\u0645.\u0645\u0627 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0686\u0627\u0631\u0686\u0648\u0628 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0634\u0646\u0627\u0633\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0648 \u0646\u0638\u0627\u0631\u062a \u0628\u0631 \u062a\u06a9\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0627\u0631\u062a\u0628\u0627\u0637\u0627\u062a \u0648 \u0631\u06cc\u0633\u06a9 \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9 \u062f\u0631 \u0628\u06cc\u0646 \u062f\u0627\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u06cc \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0627\u0635\u0644\u06cc \u0648 \u0628\u062e\u0634 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0635\u0646\u0639\u062a\u06cc \u062f\u0631 \u0634\u0628\u06a9\u0647 \u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a\u0641\u0627\u062f\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645.\u0645\u0627 \u0631\u0648\u06cc \u062e\u0637\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0647 Cryptocurrencies \u062f\u0631 \u0628\u0631\u0627\u0628\u0631 \u062b\u0628\u0627\u062a \u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u060c \u0627\u0632 \u062c\u0645\u0644\u0647 \u0627\u062b\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u0631\u0631\u06cc\u0632 \u0628\u0631 \u0633\u0627\u06cc\u0631 \u0628\u062e\u0634 \u0647\u0627 \u062f\u0631 \u0647\u0646\u06af\u0627\u0645 \u0628\u062d\u0631\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0627\u0646\u0646\u062f \u0647\u0645\u0647 \u06af\u06cc\u0631 Covid-19 \u0648 \u0648\u0627\u06a9\u0646\u0634 \u0627\u0636\u0637\u0631\u0627\u0631\u06cc 2020 \u0641\u062f\u0631\u0627\u0644 \u0631\u0632\u0631\u0648 \u062a\u0645\u0631\u06a9\u0632 \u0645\u06cc \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u0645.\u06cc\u0627\u0641\u062a\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0627 \u0646\u0634\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u062f\u0647\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u062a\u0623\u062b\u06cc\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u0648 \u0642\u0628\u0644\u0627\u064b \u0628\u0647 \u0631\u0633\u0645\u06cc\u062a \u0634\u0646\u0627\u062e\u062a\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0642\u0628\u0644 \u0627\u0632 \u0633\u0627\u0644 2020 \u0627\u0632 \u0627\u0631\u0632\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0631\u0645\u0632\u0646\u06af\u0627\u0631\u06cc \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0631 \u0628\u062e\u0634\u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u062e\u0627\u0635 \u060c \u0628\u0631\u062c\u0633\u062a\u0647 \u06a9\u0631\u062f\u0646 \u062e\u0637\u0631\u0627\u062a \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u06cc\u06a9 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0642\u0648\u0647 \u0622\u0646\u0647\u0627 \u0648 \u0627\u0631\u0627\u0626\u0647 \u06cc\u06a9 \u0631\u0648\u06cc\u06a9\u0631\u062f \u0633\u06cc\u0633\u062a\u0645\u0627\u062a\u06cc\u06a9 \u062f\u0631 \u0631\u062f\u06cc\u0627\u0628\u06cc \u062a\u0639\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062a\u06a9\u0627\u0645\u0644 \u0645\u062a\u0642\u0627\u0628\u0644 \u062f\u0631 \u0634\u0628\u06a9\u0647 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u0645\u0627\u0644\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a.<\/p>\n<table class=\"table table-bordered table-primary\">\r\n<tr>\r\n\t<td>\r\n\t\u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0632\u0628\u0627\u0646 \u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc \u0627\u0633\u062a.\r\n\t<\/td>\r\n<\/tr>\r\n\t\r\n<tr>\r\n\t<td>\r\n     \u0628\u0631\u0627\u06cc \u0633\u0641\u0627\u0631\u0634 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0627\u06cc\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0648\u0627\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u0628\u0647 \u06cc\u06a9\u06cc \u0627\u0632 \u0631\u0648\u0634 \u0647\u0627\u06cc \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0633\u060c \u067e\u06cc\u0627\u0645\u06a9\u060c \u062a\u0644\u06af\u0631\u0627\u0645 \u0648 \u06cc\u0627 \u0648\u0627\u062a\u0633 \u0627\u067e \u0628\u0627 \u0634\u0645\u0627\u0631\u0647 \u0632\u06cc\u0631 \u062a\u0645\u0627\u0633 \u0628\u06af\u06cc\u0631\u06cc\u062f:\r\n\t<br \/><br \/>\r\n\t09395106248\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t\r\n\t<br \/><br \/>\r\n\t\t\u062a\u0648\u062c\u0647 \u06a9\u0646\u06cc\u062f \u06a9\u0647 \u0634\u0631\u0627\u06cc\u0637 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0632\u06cc\u0631 \u0627\u0633\u062a:\r\n\t\t<br \/>\r\n\t\t<ul>\r\n\t\t<li>\r\n\t\t\u0642\u06cc\u0645\u062a \u0647\u0631 \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0647 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u062d\u0627\u0644 \u062d\u0627\u0636\u0631 40 \u0647\u0632\u0627\u0631 \u062a\u0648\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f. \r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t<li>\r\n\t\t\u062a\u062d\u0648\u06cc\u0644 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0634\u062f\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u0641\u0627\u06cc\u0644 \u0648\u0631\u062f \u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f.\r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t<li>\r\n\t\t\u0632\u0645\u0627\u0646 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u062f\u0631 \u0635\u0648\u0631\u062a \u062f\u0627\u0634\u062a\u0646 \u062a\u0639\u062f\u0627\u062f \u0635\u0641\u062d\u0627\u062a \u0639\u0627\u062f\u06cc \u0628\u06cc\u0646 3 \u062a\u0627 5 \u0631\u0648\u0632 \u062e\u0648\u0627\u0647\u062f \u0628\u0648\u062f.\r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t\r\n\t\t<li>\r\n\t\t\u06a9\u06cc\u0641\u06cc\u062a \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0628\u0633\u06cc\u0627\u0631 \u0628\u0627\u0644\u0627 \u0645\u06cc \u0628\u0627\u0634\u062f. \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0641\u0642\u0637 \u062a\u0648\u0633\u0637 \u0645\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u06cc\u0646 \u0628\u0627 \u0645\u062f\u0631\u06a9 \u062f\u0627\u0646\u0634\u06af\u0627\u0647\u06cc \u0645\u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u06cc \u062a\u0631\u062c\u0645\u0647 \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u062f.\r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t\t<li>\r\n\t\t\u06a9\u0644\u06cc\u0647 \u062c\u062f\u0627\u0648\u0644 \u0648 \u0641\u0631\u0645\u0648\u0644 \u0647\u0627 \u0646\u06cc\u0632 \u062f\u0631 \u0641\u0627\u06cc\u0644 \u062a\u062d\u0648\u06cc\u0644\u06cc \u0648\u0631\u062f \u062f\u0631\u062c \u0645\u06cc\u200c\u0634\u0648\u0646\u062f.\r\n\t\t<\/li>\r\n\t<\/td>\r\n\t\r\n\t\r\n<\/tr>\r\n<\/table>\r\n\r\n\r\n\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0627\u0646\u06af\u0644\u06cc\u0633\u06cc Modeling Systemic Risk: A Time-Varying Nonparametric Causal Inference Framework \u0639\u0646\u0648\u0627\u0646 \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0628\u0647 \u0641\u0627\u0631\u0633\u06cc \u0645\u0642\u0627\u0644\u0647 \u0645\u062f\u0644 \u0633\u0627\u0632\u06cc 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